Monsoon 2026 Begins Under An El Nino Shadow As IMD Warns Of A Deficit
With the southwest monsoon now advancing across the country, the IMD has cautioned that rainfall could fall below normal this season, raising concern for farms, reservoirs and the wider economy.
The NE Times National Desk
Commentary & Analysis ·
The southwest monsoon, the lifeblood of India's farms and reservoirs, is advancing across the country, but it arrives this year under an unusually cautious forecast. The India Meteorological Department has warned that the 2026 season could deliver below-normal rainfall, citing the likely development of El Nino conditions that historically suppress rain over the subcontinent. The outlook has set nerves on edge across agriculture, water management and the broader economy.
What the forecast says
The IMD has pegged seasonal rainfall at around 90 per cent of the long-period average, with a significant probability of a deficient or below-normal season. The monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, slightly later than the usual onset date, and has since pushed into the northeastern states, Sikkim and parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
The El Nino phenomenon, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is associated with weaker monsoon flows over India. While its impact is never uniform across the season or the country, its presence tilts the odds towards drier conditions in many regions.
Why the stakes are high
A large share of India's farmland still depends on the monsoon rather than irrigation, which means a weak season can hit kharif sowing, rural incomes and food prices. Reservoir levels, hydropower generation and drinking-water supplies all hinge on how the rains distribute themselves over the coming months.
- The IMD forecasts rainfall at around 90 per cent of the long-period average.
- El Nino conditions are expected to develop and suppress rainfall.
- The monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, slightly later than usual.
- A weak monsoon threatens kharif sowing and rural incomes.
- Reservoirs, hydropower and water supplies depend on the rains.
What happens next
Economists caution that the headline seasonal number can mask wide regional and temporal variation, and that the timing and spread of rain often matter more than the total. A delayed or patchy monsoon can damage crops even when the season-end figure looks close to normal.
“It is not just how much rain falls, but when and where; distribution can make or break a kharif season.”
— A monsoon forecaster
Policymakers will be watching reservoir storage, sowing data and food inflation through July and August, the heart of the season. For millions of farmers, the next few weeks of cloud and rain will shape the year ahead far more than any forecast on paper.
The NE Times View
An El Nino-shadowed monsoon threatening below-normal rains is precisely the scenario that ripples from farm incomes to food inflation to GDP. The IMD's early warning is valuable only if it triggers pre-emptive action. The NE Times View: government should ready buffer stocks, water rationing and rural support now, because a deficit foreseen but unprepared for is a policy failure, not a natural disaster.
This article is original commentary and analysis by The NE Times. Background facts were referenced from The Hindu and Reuters.
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