India Seeks Reset With Dhaka Under Tarique Rahman As Trust Deficit And Ganga Treaty Loom

India is working to reset relations with Bangladesh under newly elected Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, but officials in both capitals acknowledge that a deep trust deficit built up since 2024 will not be erased quickly. The looming expiry of the Ganga Water Treaty at the end of the year has emerged as the most consequential test of whether the two neighbours can move past a turbulent chapter.

From golden era to cold pragmatism

Ties cooled sharply during the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus, who governed from August 2024 until February 2026 before Mr Rahman took office. Remarks during that period about India's landlocked northeastern states and Bangladesh's role as a maritime gateway for the Chinese economy were received poorly in New Delhi and hardened mutual suspicion.

India has since made repeated diplomatic overtures to the new government, framing the relationship through its Neighbourhood First policy. Yet the warmth of the previous decade has given way to a more transactional dynamic in which both sides weigh equity and reciprocity.

The unresolved file

Dhaka's expectations from India remain substantially unmet, spanning the revival of transhipment facilities, restoration of visa services, improved market access and renewal of the water treaty. For New Delhi, concerns over the security of minorities, border management and the rhetoric around migration colour the conversation.

• Tarique Rahman succeeded interim leader Muhammad Yunus in February 2026.
• The Ganga Water Treaty is due to expire on 31 December 2026.
• Dhaka seeks transhipment revival, visa restoration and market access.
• New Delhi has launched multiple outreach efforts under Neighbourhood First.
• A trust deficit accumulated since 2024 continues to slow progress.

Why the treaty is the fulcrum

The Ganga Water Treaty, governing the sharing of dry-season flows at the Farakka barrage, expires on 31 December 2026. Negotiating a renewal would require sustained political goodwill on both sides; failing to do so risks turning a technical water dispute into a symbol of the wider freeze. Analysts argue that progress on water could unlock movement on trade and connectivity, while a stalemate could entrench the chill.

“Both governments want to move forward, but the relationship now rests on reciprocity rather than the old comfort.”

— South Asia analyst, paraphrased

Whether the reset gathers pace will likely become clear in the months before the treaty deadline. A renewed water agreement would signal that Dhaka and New Delhi can do business under the new dispensation; its absence would confirm that the post-2024 cooling has settled in for the long term.

The NE Times View

An elected government in Dhaka gives India a genuine opening, but resets built on personalities rarely outlast them. The NE Times View: the Ganga waters question, trade access and visa frictions are structural, and durable trust will come only from delivering on them, not from courting one leader. A neighbourhood policy that survives changes of government in Bangladesh is the only one worth having.

This article is original commentary and analysis by The NE Times. Background facts were referenced from The Indian Express and The Hindu.