Netflix Set to Near 400 Million Subscribers by 2031, Omdia Forecast Says

Netflix is on course to reach close to 400 million paid subscribers worldwide by the end of 2031, according to a forecast from research firm Omdia presented at the NEM Dubrovnik conference and published on 11 June. The projection keeps Netflix comfortably ahead of rivals despite a wave of consolidation reshaping the sector.

Omdia also expects Netflix's monthly audience to pass one billion viewers as early as 2027, a figure distinct from paid accounts that reflects password-sharing crackdowns, ad-tier growth and multi-viewer households. The distinction matters: total reach and paying subscribers tell different stories about a streamer's scale and its revenue base.

How Netflix keeps its lead

The forecast credits a combination of levers rather than any single factor. Cracking down on shared passwords converts informal viewers into paying ones, a lower-priced advertising tier widens the funnel for budget-conscious households, and a global content slate keeps the service relevant across markets. Together they help explain how Netflix can grow both its paid base and its far larger monthly audience.

That dual measure, paid subscribers approaching 400 million and monthly viewers passing a billion, captures the breadth of Netflix's footprint. The gap between the two reflects how many people watch on shared or ad-supported terms, a reach that underpins the platform's advertising ambitions even where it does not directly add subscription revenue.

A challenger takes shape

The report flags the proposed combination of HBO Max and Paramount+ as the most credible threat on the horizon, estimating a merged service could draw around 175 million subscribers globally by 2031, enough to rank among the five largest streamers. Consolidation of that scale would reshape the competitive landscape, creating a rival with the catalogue depth to challenge Netflix's dominance.

• Netflix is forecast to near 400 million paid subscribers by the end of 2031
• Its monthly audience could pass one billion viewers as early as 2027
• A merged HBO Max-Paramount+ service could reach about 175 million subscribers by 2031
• Omdia projected YouTube reaching 2.7 billion monthly active users in 2026
• The forecast was presented at NEM Dubrovnik and published on 11 June

“Scale, profitability and audience reach will increasingly decide the next phase of streaming competition.”

— Omdia, NEM Dubrovnik 2026 forecast

A market entering a new phase

Omdia framed the findings around a market entering a new phase, in which bundling, advertising models and consolidation matter as much as raw content spend. The era of growth driven chiefly by ever-larger programming budgets is giving way to one where profitability, ad revenue and the ability to assemble scale through mergers carry equal weight. The firm separately projected YouTube reaching 2.7 billion monthly active users in 2026, a reminder that the competition for attention extends well beyond traditional subscription streamers.

The implications stretch to fast-growing markets such as India, where price-sensitive audiences, advertising tiers and local-language content will help determine who captures the next wave of subscribers. As the decade progresses, the forecast suggests the contest will be decided less by who spends the most and more by who can combine scale, profitability and reach most effectively.

The NE Times View

Forecasts are confidence, not prophecy, and a Paramount-Warner merger could rewrite this one fast. Still, Netflix's projected lead rests on a genuine moat: a head start in original content and local-language investment that rivals are only now matching. For India, the line worth watching is regional commissioning, the market that will decide who wins here is not Hollywood's catalogue but who tells Indian stories best.

This article is original commentary and analysis by The NE Times. Background facts were referenced from Omdia, Variety.